Why do we believe in luck?

2011-04-07 23:20:34

6 April 2011 Last updated at 13:12 Share this page Delicious Digg Facebook reddit StumbleUpon Twitter Email Print Why do we believe in luck? Continue reading the main story In today's Magazine The time Britain slid into chaos 7 days quiz Does the Queen do fashion? 10 of your Vidal Sassoon cuts

Is there such a thing as a lucky person or a lucky streak? And does belief in good and bad luck play a part in whether we are prepared to take chances, asks Megan Lane.

I won a pair of cinema tickets recently. Then a free haircut. While sceptical about luck, I couldn't help but wonder if it might run in threes.

The next day, I had a third stroke of luck. A mugging. Was it bad luck that I had my bag snatched? Or good luck that I was unhurt?

Neither. It was a chance event. When weighing the risks of walking down an unfamiliar street, feeling lucky didn't come into it (much). Subconsciously, I balanced the time of day - early evening - and the presence of street lighting against the area being unexpectedly isolated.

Continue reading the main story Are you a risk-taker? Lab UK's Big Risk Test takes about 25 minutes Includes attitudes to luck Asks users to weigh risks of activities such as air travel, gardening and smoking Take the Big Risk Test Aitken and Spiegelhalter on luck and risk

"Luck is a really interesting aspect of risk and chance," says Cambridge University psychologist Dr Mike Aitken, co-creator of BBC Lab UK's new Big Risk Test, which explores the type of person likely to be a risk-taker or risk-averse.

"We can all remember days when good things happened to us, and days when less-good things happened, and we attribute the difference to a lucky day and an unlucky day. You could argue that luck exists in that sense."

But some people believe luck influences external events - that if they buy a lottery ticket on their lucky day, they'll be more likely to win.

"That's a much harder belief to justify, because there's no way the day you buy your lottery ticket can influence the likelihood that you're going to win," says Aitken.

"Research has suggested that people who think of themselves as lucky actually are lucky, because they are more willing to take advantage of opportunities."

Continue reading the main story Luck under the microscope Dr Yan Wong Evolutionary biologist and Bang Goes The Theory presenter

We've all come across humans acting irrationally. But could there be a rational reason for doing so? The scientist in me would delight in this being rigorously tested.

Ideally, we'd investigate an irrational behaviour that varies between people, but can be manipulated experimentally. What better than the belief in luck: the idea that luck is an attribute that you can possess - or even control?

Our understanding is still at an early stage. We can roughly measure this belief using simple questionnaires, and link it to aspects of mental health, propensity to gamble, or general optimism.

Do these suggest an evolutionary gain from feeling lucky? I'm more intrigued by the idea that people might benefit socially from being seen as "lucky".

I have a suspicion that under my ultra-rational veneer lurk a fair number of irrational instincts.

Watch Yan test MPs on risk

The BBC's risk test aims to find out whether belief in luck affects how we perceive the risks of day to day life.

In part, it draws on the BIGL - belief in good luck - scale developed in 1997 by two Canadian psychologists. This does what it says on the tin, measuring the extent to which a person believes in luck. Some think luck influences events in their favour; others think luck is random and unreliable.

The Canadian study that led to the BIGL scale debunked ideas that belief in luck was related to a person's self-esteem and general life satisfaction.

But those who believe they are inherently lucky tend to be of an optimistic bent, and get more optimistic about the likelihood of future success after a seemingly lucky event - a "lucky break" makes them more confident and optimistic.

Feeling lucky

Believing that one's success is down, at least in part, to good luck leads to attempts to control it.

Athletes and gamblers often carry out superstitious rituals in the middle of a winning streak, such as wearing the same lucky shirt, or eating the same lucky meal. Because then they might keep on winning.

Touch wood.

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